WSDC 2013 – Break Prediction After R8


Apologies for the delay. Had a rather lengthy tutorial shortly after results started coming out. In a strange twist of fate, there is now less and less information coming out. Missing quite a few R7 results and even more R8. This makes this prediction all the more teneous and uncertain. If any of the previous warnings about inaccuracies have been ignored, this is one case where it shouldn’t. I am as uncertain about the accuracy of the information below as I can possibly be. That said, here’s how I see things. Apologies for a lengthy post.

CONCLUSION
Certain to break [14]
New Zealand (8 wins, 21 ballots)
Singapore (7 wins, 21 ballots)
South Africa (7 wins, 21 ballots)
Mexico (7 wins, 20 ballots)
Australia (7 wins, 20 ballots)
England (7 wins, 20 ballots)
Swaziland (7 wins, 20 ballots) *Ballot count uncertain*
Peru (7 wins, 19 ballots)
Ireland (7 wins, 17 ballots)
India (6 wins, 19 ballots)
Netherlands (6 wins, 16 ballots)
Greece (6 wins, 16 ballots)
Slovenia (6 wins, 16 ballots)
Canada (6 wins, 14 ballots)

Likely to break [3]
Hong Kong (5/6 wins, 15-18 ballots)
UAE (5/6 wins, 14-17 ballots)
Pakistan (5 wins, 16 ballots)

Gonna modify that somewhat. Likely that 6 wins and only 6 wins will let a team break. Otherwise, 5 wins, 16 ballots likely to straddle 16 and 17.

Complete confirmed results
These are the teams whose results for all 8 rounds have been reported at the very least and are generally reliable. I have included teams who we know have 5 wins or above.
New Zealand (8 wins, 21 ballots)
Singapore (7 wins, 21 ballots)
South Africa (7 wins, 21 ballots)
Mexico (7 wins, 20 ballots)
Australia (7 wins, 20 ballots)
England (7 wins, 20 ballots)
Peru (7 wins, 19 ballots)
Ireland (7 wins, 17 ballots)
India (6 wins, 19 ballots)
Netherlands (6 wins, 16 ballots)
Greece (6 wins, 16 ballots)
Slovenia (6 wins, 16 ballots)
Canada (6 wins, 14 ballots)
Pakistan (5 wins, 16 ballots)

Those of you who have been counting will see 13 teams on 6 wins, meaning that NZ, Sng, SA, MEX, AUS, ENG, Peru, IRE, India, NED, Greece, Slovenia and Canada are certain to break. Whether Pakistan breaks depends on how many other teams on 6 wins turn up.

Guess-work
There are then 13 teams certain to break, leaving 3 slots left.

Swaziland entered Round 7 with 5 wins and 14 judges, needing just 1 win in R7 or R8 to get 6 wins and secure a position in the break. They faced Estonia and Lithuania in R7 and R8 respectively.

Hong Kong also entered Round 7 with 5 wins and 14 judges. It is known that HK lost to Ireland 1-2 in R8 which means we know they have 5 wins and 15 ballots. Their R7 opponent was Argentina.

UAE entered Round 8 wth 5 wins and 14 ballots and faced Israel. A win over Israel would leave them with 6 wins and ensure the break.

6 win break
There is a possibility that all 16 breaking teams will have 6 wins. This will occur if UAE had beaten Israel, HK had beaten Argentina and Swaziland beat either or both Estonia and Lithuania.

This will only occur if all three events indicated above do occur although this is not by any means an unlikely result. On paper, this would be the most likely result.

HK: 6/17 or 6/18
UAE: 6/16 or 6/17

Breaking with 5 wins
Assuming that the three debates don’t go as predicted above, then a/some teams on 5 wins will also break. The following teams could potentially end with 5 wins: Swaziland, HK, UAE, Pakistan, Estonia, Lithuania, Czech Republic, Israel, Malaysia, Wales, Korea. This means we can say for certain that no other teams on the tab currently have a realistic chance of breaking.

I would also take both the Czech Republic and Israel off at this point as it is unlikely a team on 5 win, 14 ballots (which is the maximum both teams can reach) will break.

If a team on 5 wins is to break, Pakistan is amongst the strongest candidates. The other teams that MIGHT end with 5 wins and 16 ballots are Hong Kong, Swaziland, Malaysia and Wales. To be honest, I don’t forsee 5 wins and 15 ballots being sufficient.

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7 comments

  1. Have heard from people at the tournament that Swaziland won both R7 & R8, which puts them on 7 wins and (I think) 20 judges.

  2. Wales was on 3 wins and 10 ballots after round 6. Wales defeated Qatar in R7 (unspecified, but probably unanimously) and debated against Korea in R8. If they are on 5, 16 they might have a chance.

    Canada is on 6, 14.

    1. Got Canada now.
      Yes, a number of teams may well reach 5 wins, I haven’t factored that in yet given the shere amount of calculations that is required to model that possiblity. Hopefully will get round to that.

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