WSDC 2013 – Break Analysis


Given the standings prior to Round 7 Updated to reflect Nigeria’s forfeited rounds.

An obvious starting point is Singapore, Australia and New Zealand who currently sit comfortably atop the tab with 6 wins a piece. This means that they are certain to break although their exact position remains to be determined. Interestingly, Singapore will face New Zealand in Round 8, making it impossible for more than 2 teams to end the rounds with 8 wins. In 2010, 5 teams broke on 8 wins, but this year will be see the lowest number of teams breaking on 8 wins since 2007 when only 1 team managed this accomplishment.

In the second bracket, those with 5 wins, most will almost certainly make it to at least 6 wins following the 7th round. Only Swaziland, Ireland and Slovenia face risky ties with teams who have won 3 of their last 6 debates. In this regard, Swaziland v. Estonia, Ireland v. Slovakia and Slovenia v. Turkey will determine whether Swaziland, Ireland and Slovenia can safely sail through to the breaks or will have to depend on winning round 8 in order to secure their progression.

In any instance, I project that the current top 12 teams are all likely to break, bar any unexpected twists and turns, all on 6 wins. Peru is also going to break after calculating in its round against Nigeria. This leaves just 3 spots up for grabs. Realistically speaking, teams entering Round 7 on 3 wins are not really in contention to break. These last few spots will almost certainly see India, and the UAE in contention; the most likely candidates to also make 6 wins.

This would leave just 3 teams breaking on 5 wins. Lithuania and the Czech Republic are in contention to break in these positions. Only one of Korea and Wales will have a shot at making 5 wins, and Scotland may still make the break if they beat India in Round 8. Only one of Turkey and Indonesia have a shot at securing 5 wins. Malaysia, Canada and Pakistan also have a chance at breaking through.

Rough break: 2 teams on 8 wins, 6 teams on 7 wins, 6 teams on 6 wins, 2 teams on 5 wins.

In other words, Singapore, Australia, New Zealand, England, Mexico, South Africa, Swaziland, Hong Kong, Ireland, Netherlands, Slovenia, Greece, Peru, India and the UAE are likely, or already certain to break. Only 2 or 3 teams will be able to break with 5 wins under their belt if not fewer.

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3 comments

  1. Pakistan also had a tie against Nigeria forfeit in round 4. If they win both their debates in round 7 and 8 they will be on 5/16 per the rules.

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