WSDC 2013 – Break Analysis 2


Round 7 has not seen any tectonic changes and much of the previous analysis still stands. Singapore, New Zealand, Australia now have 7 wins and, as before, are certain to break.

England, Mexico, South Africa, Peru, the Netherlands, Ireland, Slovenia and Greece are all also certain to break at this point having picked up 6 wins. Hong Kong and Swaziland are predicted to join them on 6 wins, although a lack of results prevent confirmation of this.

The remaining 3 slots will likely see a mixture of teams on 6 wins and others on 5 wins. The UAE, Canada and India might all end with 6 wins. The more likely event is that a further 1 or 2 teams will managed 6 wins, leaving between 1 or 2 spots for teams on 5 wins. This expands the likely pool to include Pakistan, Malaysia, Wales. Nevertheless, this will be an extremely tight squeeze in terms of those last few slots. 5 win and 16 ballots seems to be what is necessary to have a chance to break, a bar that will prove difficult for Lithuania, Scotland and Korea.

Pakistan is a particularly interest case of all or none. The enter Round 8 with 3 wins and 11 ballots. If they win R8 against the Philippines, they will end with 4/14. Given their forfeited debate with Nigeria, this will leave them with. 5/16. If they lose, they will have on only 3/11 and fall much lower down the tab than other teams. Peru have since made the knock-out rounds on a similar basis.

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8 comments

  1. if Pakistan beat Philippines, only then will Nigeria count as a win, am I right? And will Nigeria be counted as unan then or split? These technicalities are going to make the break interesting.

    1. If they loose to Philippines, they will have only 3/11 as they stood after R7 (or 3/12 if they steal a judge off Philippines)

      If Pakistan beat Philippines, they will have won 4 of the 7 debates, ending 4/14. They will have won over 50% and thus they will be considered to have won against Nigeria.

      The rules governing a forfeit are outlined at https://paullau.wordpress.com/2013/01/30/wsdc-2013-forfeited-debate/

      With 14 judges from 7 debates, they have averaged 2 judges and will be awarded 2 judges in their debate against Nigeria. This leaves them at 5/16.

      Certainly interesting. My calculations may wel be wrong though.

      1. they might win split against Philippines in which case their chances might be slashed. I think you’re right.

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