WSDC 2012 – Final Thoughts on the Break

There are currently 9 teams with either 6 or 7 wins out of the 7 preliminary rounds. This means that all 9 teams are certain to break, although their exact order is unknown and dependent upon Round 8 when many of them will face each other. The 9 teams are New Zealand, Singapore, South Africa, Australia, Canada, England, Greece, Scotland, Wales. Round 8 sees New Zealand vs Greece, Singapore vs Canada, South Africa vs Wales, Australia vs England. Only Scotland faces a team that isn’t yet sure to break, they will face Slovenia in Round 8.

This leaves 7 spots left for grabs. I count at least 4 other teams that will end with six wins, including Philippines vs Hong Kong and India vs UAE. Since both debates feature two teams on 5 wins, it is inveitable that one team will emerge with 6 wins. I would add Lithuania and Malaysia to this group as they seem likely to win their Round 8 clashes.

So, knowing that New Zealand, Singapore, South Africa, Australia, Canada, England, Greece, Scotland and Wales will break, and assuming that Lithuania, Malaysia, Hong Kong/Philippines and India/UAE also break with 6 wins; there are two possible scenarios in regards to the 3 remaining spots.

In the unlikely event that no other team reaches 6 wins, these three spots will be filled with teams on 5 wins. 5 wins and 16 judges will be needed to break in this situation, and with high speaker scores. There will only be one 5 win 15 judges spot, if any.

However, it is statistically possible for 15 teams to reach 6 wins, leaving a single spot for a team on 5 wins and 16 wins. It is highly unlikely, though not entirely unprobable for a team with 5 wins and 15 judges to break in this situation.

Now, all we can do is await the break!