It should be noted that Teoh Ren Jie wins the Best Speaker award for the second year in a row, after ranking top at WSDC 2011. Those who recieved a Best Speaker ranking at WSDC 2011 are noted below.

• 1. Teoh Ren Jie (Singapore) {Ranked 1st at WSDC 2011}
• 2. Sam Collier (England)
• 3. Alfie Hinchliffe (Scotland) {Ranked 27th at WSDC 2011}
• 4. Michael Macklin (South Africa) {Ranked 16th at WSDC 2011}
• 5. Natasha Rachman (England)
• 6. Akshay Kishan Karia (England) {Ranked 12th at WSDC 2011}
• 7. Ned Lis-Clarke (Australia) {Ranked 9th at WSDC 2011}
• 8. Ben Goldstein (England)
• 9. Darion Hotan (Singapore)
• 10. Bo Seo (Australia) {Ranked joint 5th at WSDC 2011}

A compilation from facebook and Revaldi N. Wirabuana. Many thanks!

From http://schoolsdebate.com/years/2012/WSDCTeamTabMain.pdf

Scotland beat Wales 8-1

This is Scotland’s fourth Championship following 1990, 1999 and 2007. They were previously Runners-up in 1992, 1993, 1995, 1998 and 2001. Team Scotland included three returning members (Alfie Hinchliffe, Charlie Holmes and Ruth Cameron) from WSDC 2011, who were joined by Josh Richards and April Shepherd. It was the three veterns who represented Scotland in the Grand Finals. Scotland broke 5th, with 7 wins and just one loss against South Korea. They had unanimous wins over Greece and 2010 Champions Australia in the octo and quarter finals. Scotland beat this years surprise package, Philippines, 6-2 to progress to the finals.

Team Wales had just one returning member, David Wigley, although this was his 3 return, after attending WSDC 2009, 2010 and 2011. He was joined this year by Helen Price, Amy Jones and Piers Digby. Together, the team broke 7th, with 6 wins and 2 split losses to New Zealand and South Africa, who both won all 8 preliminary rounds. Wales progressed to the semifinals at the expense of India and Ireland. In a reverse of the semifinals of WSDC 2010, Wales beat England to reach the Grand Finals of WSDC 2012. This is Wales’s first ever Grand Final apperance, WSDC 2010′s semifinal apperance, of which David was a part of, being their previous highest ranking.

The Grand Finals was held in St George’s Cathedral, a stunning location and quite a fitting one given the motion. Here are some of the images of the venue that were tweeted:

Massive thanks to Sayeqa Islam, Paidamwoyo Mangondo and Sydney Atkins for live-tweeting the Grand Finals.

Grand Final Match-up
Scotland (5) vs. Wales (7)

Team Scotland will make their 5th Grand Final apperance after 1998 (Runners-up), 1999 (Champions), 2001 (Runners-up) and 2007 (Champions). Scotland were semifinalists in 2010 after breaking 9th and defeating Wales and England in the knock-out rounds.
Team Wales will make history in their first ever Grand Final apperance. Their previous highest ranking came in 2010 where the team (James, David, Sarah, Josephine and Wonga) made it to the semifinals before loosing to England.

Grand Final Match-up by Total Speaker Points Ranking

Scotland (6) vs. Wales (9)

Massive thanks to Sayeqa Islam and Paidamwoyo Mangondo for live-tweeting SF2 and SF1 respectively.

3 of the 4 debates were won by the opposition. Not quite an opposition sweep but interesting, especially given that it led to the downfall of a number of traditionally top teams.
3 of the 4 semifinalists are from Great Britain, meaning there is a 50 percent chance the Grand Final will be an all British affair.

Semifinal Match-up
SF1: Philippines (8) vs. Scotland (5)
SF2: England (6) vs. Wales (7)

Semifinal Match-up by Total Speaker Points Ranking
SF1: Philippines (17) vs. Scotland (6)
SF2: England (1) vs. Wales (9)

We're debating in Cape Town's football world cup stadium tomorrow. Maximum seating capacity 64100, expected attendance 30…. #wsdc2012—
Team Scotland (@wsdcscotland) January 24, 2012

Other Quarterfinal venues

1. Western Cape Provincial Parliament

Western Cape Provincial Parliament

Inside the Western Cape Provincial Parliament

2. Cape Town Stadium

The team will be debating in a room next to this terrace overlooking the ground. http://t.co/EuyScfJj—
Australian Schools (@AustSchoolsTeam) January 25, 2012

The team at Cape Town stadium before the Quarter Final. http://t.co/jV9SIPgC—
Australian Schools (@AustSchoolsTeam) January 25, 2012

3. The Castle of Good Hope

4. Central Methodist Church

From

#WSDC delegates pose for official photograph on Jameson Plaza at the #UniversityofCape Town lockerz.com/s/176699948—
WSDC 2012: Cape Town (@WSDC2012) January 22, 2012

All wins were by the team that broke higher, except for Octofinal 8 where Ireland, who broke 15th, defeated hosts South Africa, who broke 2nd.

Quarterfinal Match-up
QF1: Singapore (1) vs. Philippines (8)
QF2: Australia (4) vs. Scotland (5)
QF3: England (6) vs. New Zealand (3)
QF4: Wales (7) vs. Ireland (15)

Quarterfinal Match-up by Total Speaker Points Ranking
QF1: Singapore (2) vs. Philippines (17)
QF2: Australia (4) vs. Scotland (6)
QF3: England (1) vs. New Zealand (7)
QF4: Wales (9) vs. Ireland (13)

Interesting thought, might this change the perception of how difficult or easy a debate might or might not be?

From https://twitter.com/#!/search/realtime/WSDC and http://schoolsdebate.com/years/2012/

In any instance, the team tab by speaker scores is useful in seeing which teams will top the individual speaker tabs. In the past two years, the top 2 individual speakers have both come from the team with the highest total speaker points.

1. ENGLAND, 6241.0 [6]
2. SINGAPORE, 6233.5 [1]
3. SOUTH AFRICA, 6179.5 [2]
4. AUSTRALIA, 6151.0 [4]
5. HONG KONG, 6127.0 [14]
6. SCOTLAND, 6122.5 [5]
7. NEW ZEALAND, 6112.5 [3]
8. SOUTH KOREA, 6104.5 [16]
9. WALES, 6088.5 [7]
10. CANADA, 6087.5 [9]
11. PAKISTAN, 6082.0 [17]
12. GREECE, 6066.0 [12]
13. IRELAND, 6033.5 [15]
14. INDIA, 6029.0 [10]
15. SRI LANKA, 6015.0 [19]
16. MEXICO, 6008.0 [27]
17. PHILIPPINES, 6005.5 [8]
18. MALAYSIA, 5991.5 [13]
19. NETHERLANDS, 5983.0 [24]
20. SLOVENIA, 5979.0 [23]
21. UNITED ARAB EMIRATES, 5962.5 [22]
22. LITHUANIA, 5953.5 [11]
23. ISRAEL, 5942.0 [18]
24. BANGLADESH, 5932.0 [37]
25. THAILAND, 5930.0 [20]
26. INDONESIA, 5923.5 [25]
27. SLOVAKIA, 5919.5 [26]
28. ESTONIA, 5915.5 [21]
29. SWAZILAND, 5910.5 [28]
30. CZECH REPUBLIC, 5898.5 [31]
31. TURKEY, 5897.0 [30]
32. GERMANY, 5870.0 [36]
33. ARGENTINA, 5860.5 [29]
34. CHINA, 5849.5 [32]
35. PERU, 5847.5 [35]
36. ROMANIA, 5841.0 [33]
37. UNITED STATES, 5831.5 [38]
38. ZIMBABWE, 5783.0 [34]
39. DENMARK, 5768.0 [41]
40. KUWAIT, 5763.0 [44]
41. SWEDEN, 5756.0 [42]
42. NIGERIA, 5647.5 [47]
43. MOLDOVA, 5640.5 [45]
44. QATAR, 5640.0 [40]
45. BERMUDA, 5637.0 [43]
46. BOTSWANA, 5623.5 [39]
47. JAPAN, 5606.5 [46]
48. MONGOLIA, 5436.0 [48]

If we consider speaker scores, the comparative strength of match-ups would appear like this:
OF1: Singapore (2) vs. Korea (8)
OF2: Philippines (17) vs. Canada (10)
OF3: Australia (4) vs. Malaysia (18)
OF4: Scotland (6) vs. Greece (12)
OF5: Lithuania (22) vs. England (1)
OF6: Hong Kong (5) vs. New Zealand (7)
OF7: India (14) vs. Wales (9)
OF8: Ireland (13) vs. South Africa (3)

Rank TEAM, Wins (of 8), Ballots (of 24), Total speaker points
1 SINGAPORE, 8, 23, 6233.5
2 SOUTH AFRICA, 8, 21, 6179.5
3 NEW ZEALAND, 8, 21, 6112.5
4 AUSTRALIA, 7, 20, 6151.0
5 SCOTLAND, 7, 19, 6122.5
6 ENGLAND, 6, 20, 6241.0
7 WALES, 6, 18, 6088.5
8 PHILIPPINES, 6, 18, 6005.5
9 CANADA, 6, 17, 6087.5
10 INDIA, 6, 17, 6029.0
11 LITHUANIA, 6, 17, 5953.5
12 GREECE, 6, 16, 6066.0
13 MALAYSIA, 6, 15, 5991.5
14 HONG KONG, 5, 16, 6127.0
15 IRELAND, 5, 16, 6033.5
16 KOREA, 5, 15, 6104.5
17 PAKISTAN, 5, 15, 6082.0
18 ISRAEL, 5, 15, 5942.0
19 SRI LANKA, 5, 14, 6015.0
20 THAILAND, 5, 14, 5930.0
21 ESTONIA, 5, 14, 5915.5
22 UNITED ARAB EMIRATES, 5, 12, 5962.5
23 SLOVENIA, 4, 14, 5979.0
24 NETHERLANDS, 4, 13, 5983.0
25 INDONESIA, 4, 13, 5923.5
26 SLOVAKIA, 4, 13, 5919.5
27 MEXICO, 4, 12, 6008.0
28 SWAZILAND, 4, 12, 5910.5
29 ARGENTINA, 4, 12, 5860.5
30 TURKEY, 4, 11, 5897.0
31 CZECH REPUBLIC, 3, 10, 5898.5
32 CHINA, 3, 10, 5849.5
33 ROMANIA, 3, 10, 5841.0
34 ZIMBABWE, 3, 10, 5783.0
35 PERU, 3, 8, 5847.5
36 GERMANY, 3, 7, 5870.0
37 BANGLADESH, 2, 12, 5932.0
38 UNITED STATES, 2, 8, 5831.5
39 BOTSWANA, 2, 6, 5623.5
40 QATAR, 2, 4, 5640.0
41 DENMARK, 1, 5, 5768.0
42 SWEDEN, 1, 5, 5756.0
43 BERMUDA, 1, 3, 5637.0
44 KUWAIT, 0, 2, 5763.0
45 MOLDOVA, 0, 2, 5640.5
46 JAPAN, 0, 1, 5606.5
47 NIGERIA, 0, 0, 5647.5
48 MONGOLIA, 0, 0, 5436.0

From http://schoolsdebate.com/years/2012/WSDCTeamTabMain.pdf

1. Singapore, 8, 23
2. New Zealand, 8, 21
2. South Africa, 8, 21
4. Australia, 7, 20
5. Scotland, 7, 19
6. England, 6, 20
7. Philippines, 6, 18
7. Wales, 6, 18
9. Canada, 6, 17
9. India, 6, 17
9. Lithuania, 6, 17
12. Greece, 6, 16
13. Malaysia, 6, 15
14. Hong Kong, 5, 16
14. Ireland, 5, 16
16. Israel, 5, 15
16. South Korea, 5, 15
16. Pakistan, 5, 15
19. Estonia, 5, 14
19. Sri Lanka, 5, 14
19. Thailand, 5, 14
22. UAE, 5, 12
23. Slovenia, 4, 14
24. Indonesia, 4, 13
24. Netherlands, 4, 13
24. Slovakia, 4, 13
27. Argentina, 4, 12
27. Mexico, 4, 12
27. Swaziland, 4, 12
30. Turkey, 4, 11
31. China, 3, 10
31. Czech Republic, 3, 10
31. Romania, 3, 10
31. Zimbabwe, 3, 10
35. Peru, 3, 8
36. Germany, 3, 7
37. Bangladesh, 2, 12
38. USA, 2, 8
39. Botswana, 2, 6
40. Qatar, 2, 4
41. Denmark, 1, 5
41. Sweden, 1, 5
43. Bermuda, 1, 3
44. Kuwait, 0, 2
44. Moldova, 0, 2
46. Japan, 0, 1
47. Mongolia, 0, 0
48. Nigeria, 0, 0

Results:
Breaking teams (in rough order): New Zealand, Singapore, South Africa, Australia, Scotland, Canada, England, Greece, India, Lithuania, Malaysia, Philippines, Wales, Hong Kong, Ireland
Bubble teams (teams that are on the verge of breaking with 5 wins, 15 judges): Israel, South Korea, Pakistan

Australia Prop (2) defeated England Opp (1)
Bermuda Prop (2) defeated Romania Opp (1)
China Opp (3) defeated Qatar Prop (0)
Denmark Prop (2) defeated Moldova Opp (1)
Estonia Opp (2) defeated Bangladesh Prop (1)
Germany Prop (2) defeated Czech Republic Opp (1)
India Opp (3) defeated UAE Prop (0)
Indonesia Opp (3) defeated Botswana Prop (0)
Ireland Prop (3) defeated Korea Opp (0)
Israel Prop (2) defeated Sri Lanka Opp (1)
Lithuania Prop (3) defeated Mongolia Opp (0)
Malaysia Opp (3) defeated USA Prop (0)
Mexico Opp (3) defeated Peru Prop (0)
New Zealand Opp (3) defeated Greece Prop (0)
Pakistan Opp (2) defeated Netherlands Prop (1)
Philippines Opp (2) defeated Hong Kong Prop (1)
Scotland Prop (2) defeated Slovenia Opp (1)
Singapore Opp (3) defeated Canada Prop (0)
Slovakia Opp (3) defeated Kuwait Prop (0)
South Africa Prop (2) defeated Wales Opp (1)
Swaziland Prop (3) defeated Nigeria Opp (0)
Thailand Opp (3) defeated Argentina Prop (0)
Turkey Prop (2) defeated Sweden Opp (1)
Zimbabwe Opp (3) defeated Japan Prop (0)

See original document at http://schoolsdebate.com/years/2012/ResultsSummary006.pdf

This leaves 7 spots left for grabs. I count at least 4 other teams that will end with six wins, including Philippines vs Hong Kong and India vs UAE. Since both debates feature two teams on 5 wins, it is inveitable that one team will emerge with 6 wins. I would add Lithuania and Malaysia to this group as they seem likely to win their Round 8 clashes.

So, knowing that New Zealand, Singapore, South Africa, Australia, Canada, England, Greece, Scotland and Wales will break, and assuming that Lithuania, Malaysia, Hong Kong/Philippines and India/UAE also break with 6 wins; there are two possible scenarios in regards to the 3 remaining spots.

In the unlikely event that no other team reaches 6 wins, these three spots will be filled with teams on 5 wins. 5 wins and 16 judges will be needed to break in this situation, and with high speaker scores. There will only be one 5 win 15 judges spot, if any.

However, it is statistically possible for 15 teams to reach 6 wins, leaving a single spot for a team on 5 wins and 16 wins. It is highly unlikely, though not entirely unprobable for a team with 5 wins and 15 judges to break in this situation.

Now, all we can do is await the break!

Results:
Key results:

• Scotland 3-0 Thailand
• Lithuania 3-0 South Korea
• Malaysia 2-1 Peru
• Israel 3-0 Indonesia
• Netherlands 3-0 Slovakia

Top team (7 wins): New Zealand, Singapore, South Africa
6 wins: Australia, Canada, England, Greece, Scotland, Wales
5 wins, 16 judges: Philippines
5 wins, 15 judges: HK, South Korea
5 wins, 14 judges: India, Lithuania
5 wins, 13 judges: Sri Lanka
5 wins, 12 judges: Malaysia, UAE
4 wins, 13 judges: Ireland, Israel, Pakistan, Slovenia
4 wins, 12 judges: Argentina, Estonia, Netherlands
4 wins, 11 judges: Thailand

Argentina Opp (2) defeated Slovenia Prop (1)
Australia Opp (3) defeated Moldova Prop (0)
Canada Opp (3) defeated Zimbabwe Prop (0)
China Prop (2) defeated Bangladesh Opp (1)
England Prop (3) defeated Denmark Opp (0)
Estonia Prop (3) defeated Qatar Opp (0)
Germany Opp (2) defeated India Prop (1)
Greece Opp (3) defeated Nigeria Prop (0)
Hong Kong Opp (3) defeated Romania Prop (0)
Ireland Opp (3) defeated Mongolia Prop (0)
Israel Opp (3) defeated Indonesia Prop (0)
Lithuania Opp (3) defeated Korea Prop (0)
Malaysia Prop (2) defeated Peru Opp (1)
Mexico Prop (2) defeated USA Opp (1)
Netherlands Opp (3) defeated Slovakia Prop (0)
New Zealand Prop (2) defeated Swaziland Opp (1)
Pakistan Prop (3) defeated Kuwait Opp (0)
Philippines Prop (3) defeated Bermuda Opp (0)
Scotland Opp (3) defeated Thailand Prop (0)
Singapore Prop (3) defeated Japan Opp (0)
South Africa Opp (3) defeated Sweden Prop (0)
Sri Lanka Prop (3) defeated Botswana Opp (0)
UAE Opp (2) defeated Czech Republic Prop (1)
Wales Prop (2) defeated Turkey Opp (1)

See original document at http://schoolsdebate.com/years/2012/ResultsSummary007.pdf

Round 8 will see some of the most heated clashes with A teams against A teams, B teams against B teams and so on. This is on paper the most competitive round. I count 8 debates in particular will be important in deciding which teams break.
Thailand (4-11) vs Argentina (3-10)
Scotland (5-14) vs Slovenia (4-12)
India (4-11) vs UAE (4-10)
The Netherlands (3-9) vs Pakistan (3-10)
Sri Lanka (4-10) vs Israel (3-10)
Philippines (4-13) vs Hong Kong (4-12)

The Break
Obviously at this stage Singapore, New Zealand and South Africa are guaranteed to break. Based on the results of the first 6 rounds, I count 7 other teams that should also be certain to break, leaving 6 breaking spots up for grabs. Those 6 spots are going to be fought out between some 16 teams who all have a chance of getting 5 wins. Of these 17 teams, 9 are almost certain to get 5 wins, which is to say that a team with less 4 wins after the first 7 rounds is not going to break.

The 11 debates highlighted above will most likely determine which of these teams make it through. There will likely be 3-4 teams who end the day with 6 wins, leaving just 2-3 places for teams on 5 wins. Teams with 5 wins and 16 judges or above are most likely to break. At this point, unless a significant number of teams drop judges in R7 or R8, 5 wins and 15 judges may not be enough, and 5 wins and 14 judges looks unlikely.

Results:
Top team (6 win, 17 judges): Singapore
6 win, 16 judges: New Zealand, South Africa
5 win, 16 judges: England
5 win, 15 judges: Australia, South Korea, Wales
5 win, 14 judges: Canada, Scotland
5 win, 13 judges: Greece
4 win, 13 judges: Philippines
4 win, 12 judges: Hong Kong, Slovenia,
4 win, 11 judges: India, Lithuania, Thailand
4 win, 10 judges: Malaysia, Sri Lanka, UAE

Australia Prop (3) defeated Lithuania Opp (0)
Canada Opp (3) defeated Slovakia Prop (0)
Czech Republic Opp (3) defeated Mexico Prop (0)
England Prop (3) defeated Turkey Opp (0)
Estonia Opp (3) defeated Romania Prop (0)
Greece Opp (3) defeated Kuwait Prop (0)
Hong Kong Opp (3) defeated Botswana Prop (0)
India Opp (3) defeated Malaysia Prop (0)
Ireland Opp (3) defeated Denmark Prop (0)
Israel Prop (2) defeated Bermuda Opp (1)
Korea Prop (3) defeated Zimbabwe Opp (0)
New Zealand Prop (3) defeated Sweden Opp (0)
Pakistan Prop (3) defeated Japan Opp (0)
Peru Opp (2) defeated Argentina Prop (1)
Philippines Prop (3) defeated China Opp (0)
Scotland Prop (2) defeated USA Opp (1)
Singapore Opp (3) defeated Mongolia Prop (0)
Slovenia Prop (3) defeated Qatar Opp (0)
South Africa Opp (3) defeated Moldova Prop (0)
Sri Lanka Prop (2) defeated Germany Opp (1)
Swaziland Opp (2) defeated Netherlands Prop (1)
Thailand Prop (2) defeated Bangladesh Opp (1)
UAE Opp (3) defeated Indonesia Prop (0)
Wales Opp (3) defeated Nigeria Prop (0)

See original document at http://schoolsdebate.com/years/2012/ResultsSummary006.pdf

Motion: THBT the police should use racial profiling when fighting crime {Impromptu}
Defition of racial provided by organizers “the singling out of an individual from a group on the basis of race”

Results:
Notable results:

• South Africa beat England 2-1, ending their 38 consecutive unbeaten record in WSDC preliminaries
• Wales steals a judge off New Zealand
• South Korea steals a judge off Singapore
• This leaves, Singapore, New Zealand and South Africa as the only 3 teams with a perfect 5-0 unbeaten record for WSDC 2012

Top team (5 win, 14 judges): Singapore
5 wins, 13 judges: New Zealand, South Africa
4 wins, 13 judges: England
4 wins, 12 judges: Australia, Scotland, South Korea, Wales,
4 wins, 11 judges: Canada, Lithuania
4 wins, 10 judges: Greece, India, Malaysia

Argentina Opp (3) defeated USA Prop (0)
Australia Opp (3) defeated Ireland Prop (0)
Botswana Opp (3) defeated Bermuda Prop (0)
Canada Prop (3) defeated Pakistan Opp (0)
Greece Prop (2) defeated Netherlands Opp (1)
Hong Kong Prop (2) defeated Israel Opp (1)
India Prop (2) defeated Mexico Opp (1) {This debate was postponed and the reserve motion was used}
Indonesia Opp (3) defeated Germany Prop (0)
Lithuania Prop (3) defeated Denmark Opp (0)
Malaysia Opp (3) defeated Czech Republic Prop (0)
New Zealand Opp (2) defeated Wales Prop (1)
Philippines Opp (3) defeated Estonia Prop (0)
Romania Opp (2) defeated China Prop (1)
Scotland Opp (3) defeated Peru Prop (0)
Singapore Prop (2) defeated Korea Opp (1)
Slovakia Opp (3) defeated Japan Prop (0)
Slovenia Opp (2) defeated Bangladesh Prop (1)
South Africa Prop (2) defeated England Opp (1)
Sri Lanka Opp (3) defeated UAE Prop (0)
Swaziland Prop (2) defeated Kuwait Opp (1)
Sweden Prop (3) defeated Nigeria Opp (0)
Thailand Opp (3) defeated Qatar Prop (0)
Turkey Prop (2) defeated Moldova Opp (1)
Zimbabwe Prop (3) defeated Mongolia Opp (0)

See original document at http://schoolsdebate.com/years/2012/ResultsSummary004.pdf

R1-4: Surprises and other things that stood out
The first four rounds were not, on paper, going to significantly change the game between top teams. Both A and B teams faced C, D, E and F teams. Round 3 did see two C teams defeat A teams with Scotland and India defeating Canada and Greece respectively. R2 saw A and D teams face off, and although no D teams won outright, they successfully forced Australia, Greece, New Zealand, the Netherlands and Wales to drop judges. The biggest stunner so far may be from Malaysia (an E team) in Round 1 when they defeated Australia 2-1.

Team Malaysia and Team Lithuania have both done exceptionally well. As E and G teams respectively, both sit on 3 wins. Lithuania still have their A (Australia) and B (South Korea) team to come, but are well positioned to finish on 5 wins. Malaysia face Czech Republic, India, Peru and the USA and could potentially go pick a number of other wins.

I thought I’d include this achievement as tweeted by Ben Woolgar, WSDC alumni, WSDC 2012 Motions Committee and WSDC 2008 Champion

England now unbeaten in 38 straight prelims at #wsdc #NationalPride—
Ben Woolgar (@benjywoolgar) January 20, 2012

R5-8: What to expect
R5 and R8 will see some of the most challenging debates with A teams against B teams in Round 5. In round 8, each group will face another team from the same group, meaning that an A team faces an A team, BB, CC, DD and so on.

R5 sees the 6 undefeated teams against each other: England vs. South Africa, Wales vs. New Zealand, Singapore vs. South Korea. This also means that no more than 3 teams will break with a perfect 8-0 record. 5 teams broke 8-0 in 2010, 3 did in 2011. R8 also sees Wales vs. South Africa, Singapore vs. Canada, England vs. Australia and New Zealand vs. Greece; all high-profile clashes that could shift the needle at the last moment.

It is difficult to make accurate calculations regarding the break. Historically, 5 wins has been sufficient to break. However, in recent years, 6 wins has been needed to truly secure the break with only 2-3 teams on 5 wins sneaking through. I count 7 teams who should have a minimum of 6 wins at the conclusion of the 8 preliminary rounds. I project that another 8 teams will have at least 5 wins.

Obviously, some of these teams will get higher than their predicted minimum number of wins. And although 8 teams should have a minimum of 5 wins, a large number of other teams will join them at 5 wins. The break should be competitive, and 6 wins ought ensure breaking. Teams with 5 wins and 15 judges have a high chance of breaking, below that and things get tricky. I will refrain from trying to fashion a definitive guess as to how many 5 win teams will make the break, though things should become clearer after R6.